HomeMy WebLinkAboutagenda.council.worksession.20080505MEMORANDUM
TO: Mayor Ireland and Aspen City Council
FROM: Jessica Garrow, Long Range Planner
Ben Gagnon, Special Projects Planner
RE: Council Work Session --Update on the Aspen Area Community Plan
Update
DATE OF MEMO: May 2, 2008
MEETING DATE: May 5, 2008, S:OOpm
REQUEST OF COUNCIL: There is no formal action requested at this time. The purpose of
this meeting is to provide an update on the City's Existing Conditions Report for the Aspen Area
Community Plan update. Staff will outline all the efforts currently underway to prepare for the
AACP update, including an update on the public process RFP, and provide an updated timeline.
At this meeting, Staff would like to review the proposed "History of the Aspen Economy" white
paper with Council and get feedback on how to proceed with this portion of the update.
DISCUSSION: Staff has identified a number of tasks that need to be completed to provide a
strong information base for the AACP update. These include a "traditional" Existing Conditions
Report similaz to the ones created for the 1993 and 2000 plans; a detailed build-out analysis; a
scrape-and-replace database; a Growth Management Database; a study of Aspen's economic
history in a "History of the Aspen Economy" white paper; and a housing survey/study. Staff
recently completed a Placemaking exercise, which will provide the first input to the AACP
update. Each of these components is outlined in more detail below.
City and County Community Development staff has completed the review of the public process
RFPs, and aze currently refining the scope of work with the preferred firm. Council should
expect to see a contract for this work in an upcoming Council Meeting (likely the end of May or
beginning of June).
Existing Conditions Report: Julie Ann Woods, of Elk Mountains Planning Group, and Chris
Cazes, of RRC Associates, are working with Community Development staff to produce an
updated Existing Conditions Report. This report will be used to educate Aspen community
members and visitors on current trends and capacity of services in the Aspen Area, and will be
used in the public process for the AACP update. Because a major goal of the AACP update is to
involve a broad range of community members and engage in an extensive public education effort,
the report from RRC and Elk Mountains Planning will be formatted into auser-friendly document
in both booklet and web formats.
Staff and the consultants provided an overview of this report at the Mazch 3rd work session, and
received good feedback from Council. Based on that meeting more information regarding
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transportation issues along Highway 82 will be presented, as well as additional housing information
that addresses cost of living, availability of units, etc throughout the Valley.
A separate report on Transportation Systems has been undertaken in conjunction with the
County. This report will be incorporated into the Existing Conditions Report, and will be part of
the overall education effort around the Existing Conditions. The Build-out Analysis, as well as
the Scrape and Replace data, Growth Management History, and the analysis of building permit
data will also be included in the final Existing Conditions Report and in the education effort.
Build-out Analysis: Staff has contracted to work with Mitch Haas, Alan Richman, and John
Rowland to work on a detailed build-out analysis for all commercial and lodge properties in
town. The analysis will use existing information from building permit files and assessor's data
to determine what is currently built. Then, the group will use the current Land Use Code to
analyze which parcels are most likely to redevelop in the next ten (10) yeazs. The analysis will
take into account vazious constraints, including existing Historic Designations, View Plane
Regulations, etc. This build-out analysis is anticipated to be part of the Existing Conditions
Report, in the Growth Management Chapter.
Scrape and Replace Data and Growth Management Database: Staff has contracted with
Gabe Preston of RPI Consulting to produce a detailed Scrape and Replace database and a
Growth Management database. These will track Aspen's residential and commercial
development over time, and will provide a useful tool to the Community Development
Department to continue tracking these in the future. At a recent Council work session, Council
directed staff to expand Gabe's contract to include information on all construction and
development, not just development that goes through a formal GMQS review. This will include
an analysis of the amount and value of development, the geographic breakdown of development,
as well as correlating building permit information with changes in occupancy. Gabe is expected
to present his information to Council at a work session in June.
Because of the expansion in Gabe's contract, Staff is expecting a delay in the release of the
Existing Conditions Report. The initial work Gabe was contracted to do (Scrape and Replace
data and GMQS history and database) will be provided to staff by May 16`". The additional
building permit data will be completed near the end of June. Because all of this information is
interrelated, the release of the Existing Conditions Report cannot occur without including the
building permit information. At this time Staff anticipates that the Existing Conditions Report
will be released in late June or early July.
Housing Survey/Study: The Community Development Department is working with the
Housing Authority to put together an Affordable Housing study that would examine the
commuting patterns of workers, the number of jobs per worker, and who lives in our affordable
housing units. FTE generation in residential development has also been included as part of this
study. The study is currently underway, and the information will be included in the Housing
Chapter of the Existing Conditions Report.
History of Economy: An important component of the Existing Conditions Report will be a
chapter on the history of the Aspen economy, featuring a broad overview of the development of
the modern resort economy since 1968.
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The report will include a special focus on the phenomena of the real estate and construction
market, reviewing the sources of capital that have driven this economic sector, and examining
correlations between "boom" periods in Aspen and related national economic trends. A
demographic analysis will be included, as well as a comparative analysis, ranking Aspen with a
wide range of national and international resorts, based on a number of economic variables.
Staff is currently in discussions with the Chicago office of Economics Research Associates
(ERA) to provide this "White Paper," with the intent of providing an economic, demographic
and historical context for the upcoming revision of the AACP. An overview of ERA's
experience is attached in Exhibit A. Staff will be bringing an estimated cost for this white paper
to the work session to determine if City Council is interested in moving forward.
This report will be released separately from the Existing Conditions Report, likely in September.
Placemaking Exercise: The first public process portion of the Aspen Area Community Plan
was a success. During the height of the off-season, we managed to get fifteen (15) people to
attend the first 3-hour charrette and ten (10) to attend the second, held on April 24 and 25 at the
Aspen Art Museum. Many attendees had never participated in a local public process, or had
rarely participated.
The on-line survey attracted 170 people to offer their three "favorite gathering places," and their
three "favorite individual places" (where we go to exercise, walk, reflect). The top individual
place was the Rio Grande Trail, followed by Smuggler Mountain and the Hunter Creek Trail.
Under top gathering places, staff recognized that the results included different places that were
closely related. For example, when we added up Bentleys, the Wheeler, the Fountain and the
Pedestrian Malls, the Wheeler "corner" rose to the top. When we combined the Zele and
Paradise "corners," that kind ofsouth-facing public place at an intersection also rose to the top.
We provided three (3) tables, with five (5) participants at each table, as well as an artist -- Randy
Hester of UC-Berkeley, Larry Yaw and Don Ensign. The first step was to actually go to these
favorite places and talk about them, then return to the museum. During the exercise, participants
were asked to talk about the "ingredients" that contribute to these special places. The artists
talked and sketched, and participants drew as well, using colored pencils and pastels.
Although good progress was made the first day on the Rio Grande Trail, the Zele/Paradise
comers and the Wheeler corner, we decided to use the second day to focus again on
Zele/Paradise and the Wheeler corner in an effort to learn more about the exercise. We ended up
with some intriguing artistic work, often abstract, as well as some helpful words and phrases.
Staff will be working to design one multi-media poster for each site. These posters will later be
displayed at various buildings in town. People often asked about the purpose of the exercise.
There is great value in bringing local people into a collaborative exercise about great places in
town, and while there is no plan to formally integrate the outcomes into official City documents,
they may be useful in the future when considering how to design new public places.
Update on Public Process RFP: The City and County received nine (9) responses to the public
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process RFP. The submittals came from national firms, as well as regional and local firms. The
Aspen office of Design Workshop submitted a detailed proposal that addressed all of the aspects
discussed with the City Council and the Boazd of County Commissioners. Staff is currently
working with Design Workshop to finalize a scope of work so a contract can be brought to City
Council for approval. Staff hopes to bring the contract to Council in late May or early June.
TIMELINE: As Staff has continued to work on the existing conditions report, it has become
clear that our initial timeline for completion was ambitious. Staff believes it is more important to
release a report that is coherent, addresses all aspects of Aspen's existing conditions, and is user
friendly and accessible, than to meet a deadline for deadline's sake. Therefore, Staff estimates
the following timeline with respect to the Existing Conditions Report:
• May 16, 2008: Initial scope of work for Gabe (i.e. Scrape and Replace data and GMQS
History and Database) completed;
• May 16, 2008: Build-out Analysis of Commercial and Lodge properties completed by
Alan Richman, Mitch Haas, John Rowland, and Staff;
• May 31, 2008: Work completed by RRC and Elk Mountains Planning Group -this
includes the final draft of the Growth Management, Parks and Open Space,
Environmental Quality, Pedestrian/Bicycle Network, Economic Sustainability, Sustaining
the Aspen Idea, Planning for the Lifelong Aspenite, Structure of Governance, Historic
Preservation, and Affordable Housing Chapters of the Existing Conditions Report;
• May 27, 2008 or June 9, 2008: Staff anticipates bringing the contract for the public
process to City Council for approval;
• June, 2008: Staff will finalize the Existing Conditions Report formatting and work with
the County to incorporate the Transportation Chapter into the Final Report. If the public
process contract is approved, Staff will work with the consultants to develop a website
for the AACP update and will prepare the Existing Conditions Report to be included on
the website;
• June 10, 2008: Staff will receive the initial draft of the building permit work from Gabe
and begin working to incorporate it into the Final Report;
• Late June, Early July: The Final Report should be ready for distribution.
This timeline delays the report's release by a month from the original anticipated date. In
addition to making sure the report is coherent, this additional time will give Staff an opportunity
to work with our public process consultant to prepaze the document for inclusion on the web.
ATTACHMENTS:
EXHIBIT A -Overview of Economic Research Associates (ERA)
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Introduction to ERA
Economics Research Associates (ERA) was founded in Los Angeles in 1958. Between 1981 and
2007, the firm was owned as a California corporation by its principal consultants. In 2007, reflective
of ERA's growth and increasing presence in diverse overseas markets, the firm joined AECOM, a
global provider of professional and technical consulting services. AECOM comprises over 20 best in
class firms, all focused on improving the quality of the built and natural environment. ERA has
offices in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and London with a
professional staff of over 125 people, offering skills in real estate market and financial analysis, fiscal
impact assessment, planning and policy development, and related real estate services. The firm has
completed more than 17,000 consulting assignments for public and private clients in all 50 states. In
2007 alone, ERA worked in over 50 countries throughout the world.
The following project summaries are a sample of relevant ERA projects we have completed in
Colorado and other ski resort communities in the U.S.
Selected ERA Projects -Colorado
Economic Trend Report
Telluride, Colorado
Client: City of Telluride and San Miguel County
As input into the city and county's growth management policy reviews, ERA prepared a descriptive
analysis of the region's economic evolution, current base, and potential future trends, including
suggestions on how to diversify the local economy from its current tourism and construction industry
dependence without inducing substantial growth.
Economic Base Study
Boulder, Colorado
Client: City of Boulder/University of Colorado/ Boulder Development Commission
ERA was retained jointly by the City of Boulder, University of Colorado, and the Boulder
Development Commission for an economic base study. To this effect, ERA reviewed economic
growth trends in the City of Boulder and Boulder County in order to fully describe the regional
economic base. In addition to conventional economic measures, the study looked at qualityof-life
and fiscal relationships, providing a comprehensive base to inform the City's growth management
policy debates.
Economics Reports for Master Plan submittal
Lake Catamount, Colorado
Client: Mitchell Energy
ERA prepared a series of reports to be used by Mitchell Energy for the Lake Catamount Master Plan.
The proposed Lake Catamount development was envisioned as a 'sister' resort to Steamboat
Springs, located ten miles south of the subject property. Plans called for the development of a ski
area, golf course, tennis complex, recreation/swim center, equestrian facilities, marina,
hotel/conference center, two commercial villages, and a total of 3,800 residential units.
Selected ERA Projects - U.S. Ski Resort Areas
Snowmass Ski Resort
Aspen, Colorado
Client: Cement Company
ERA analyzed the market potential for the Snowmass-At-Aspen in Colorado, and determined
probable operating results for the specific types of enterprises that would be included in the total
complex. The research included an analysis of past and projected trends in skier days in the western
United States and particularly at Aspen; assessment of potential for creating demand for use of
available facilities during the summer season; and collection of data on occupancy, revenues, and
expenses of facilities operating in various types of resorts in the United States.
Northstarat-Tahoe, California
Lake Tahoe, California
Client: Trimont Land Company
ERA's involvement with Fibreboard Corporation's subsidiary, Trimont Land Company, began in 1966
with an analysis of their Lake Tahoe holdings. Out of this assignment evolved the concept for
Northstar-at-Tahoe, ayear-round planned resort community offering a wide range of recreational
activities (including skiing, golf, tennis, hiking, and horseback riding). Since detailed planning began
in 1970, ERA has performed 14 studies for the developer, including analyses of real estate pricing
and absorption, as well as hotel and commercial potential.
Squaw Valley Ski Area
Squaw Valley, California
Client: Squaw Valley, Inc.
ERA was retained by Squaw Valley, USA, to assist the ski area in increasing their weekday or
destination skier visitation. ERA's assignment was to determine the most appropriate mix of lodging,
real estate and village services to create a destination resort at Squaw Valley,
Economic Feasibility Studies
Vail, Colorado
Clienk Vail Associates
For the ERA participated in the development of the Vail, Colorado ski area, performing several
economic feasibility studies for Vail Associates. The initial study in 1970 projected the future growth
of skiing and the methods with which to balance seasonal parking with summer activities such as
golf and tennis. Subsequent assignments viewed the demand for condominiums. In addition, ERA
was a member of the initial planning team for the Beaver Creek development 7 miles west of Vail.
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Sugar Bowl Ski Area Long Range Master Plan Development
Sugar Bowl, California
Client: Sugar Bowl Ski Area
ERA was retained by Sugar Bowl Ski Area to develop along-range master plan for the ski area's
future expansion. In this capacity, ERA conducted comprehensive surveys of Sugar Bowl's
homeowners and ski club members to understand local perceptions about how to improve the
ski/vacation experience at Sugar Bowl. The findings of these surveys were used to help the planning
team formulate long-range development plans that would be economically viable in addition to
maintaining the existing character and ambiance.
Master Plan Programming for Mt. Mansfield
Stowe, Vermont
Client: Mt. Mansfield Corporation
Mt. Mansfield embarked on a master planning effort for its base area property. ERA was retained to
provide detailed programming evidence for the plan to include base facilities, associated recreational
amenities, real estate, and marketing. The analysis included extensive competitive and comparable
assessment, primary surveys and focus groups, and preliminary financial modeling to test the
viability of alternative programming elements.
Market Potential for Valley Development
Wintergreen Resort, Virginia
Client: Wintergreen Development Corporation
Wintergreen is a highly successful ski-golf resort in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. Land
available for future development in the mountaintop area of the resort is limited, so Wintergreen is
focusing on development of its valley property to sustain its real estate program. ERA was retained
to analyze the market potential for future valley development. Alternative development strategies
encompassing different target markets and product types were evaluated. As part of the study,
telephone surveys were conducted in key cities of the Wintergreen market area to test marketability
of the valley location and product alternatives.
Market Assessment and Development Recommandationsfcr Garibaldi Ski Resort
Squamish, British Columbia
Client: Garibaldi Alpen Resorts
In conjunction with the preparation of a Development Plan for submittal to the Provincial Government
of British Columbia, Garibaldi Alpen retained ERA to prepare a market study and financial analysis to
identify support for their proposed tour-season resort development near Squamish in southwestern
British Columbia. During the course of the analysis, ERA participated in project team meetings in the
U.S. and Canada; visited the site and its surrounding area; interviewed public and private sector
officials in the area of the site, as well as in government and other offices in the U.S. and Canada;
reviewed and analyzed published and unpublished reports on the ski industry; and reviewed internal
files concerning ski area developments around the world.