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HomeMy WebLinkAboutInformation Only 20250107AGENDA INFORMATION UPDATE January 7, 2025 5:00 PM, I.Information Update I.A Follow Up Memo Castle Creek Bridge Polling Follow-Up Memo Castle Creek Bridge Polling.docx Probolsky Research - City of Aspen - (Unbalanced Results).pdf Probolsky Research - City of Aspen - Scientific Results.pdf 1 1 FOLLOW-UP MEMORANDUM CITY COUNCIL WORK SESSION WORK SESSION MEETING DATE:November 11, 2024 FOLLOW-UP MEMO DATE:January 7, 2025 AGENDA TOPIC:Entrance to Aspen Polling PRESENTED BY:Jenn Ooton, Senior Project Manager Lynn Rumbaugh, TDM-cp, Mobility Manager, Interim Transportation Director Carly McGowan, P.E., Senior Project Manager COUNCIL MEMBERS PRESENT:Mayor Torre, John Doyle, Ward Hauenstein, Sam Rose, Bill Guth _____________________________________________________________________ WORK SESSION DISCUSSION SUMMARY: During the work session, Probolsky Research, which was selected to conduct opinion research/polling services on the topic of the Entrance to Aspen, reviewed the survey questionnaire regarding the Entrance to Aspen with Council. The City Council as a whole reviewed the language for each question and directed staff and the consultants to include visual representations of potential alignment alternatives for survey takers. The final version of the survey was 17 questions, with two additional demographic questions. The survey questions were developed to understand community sentiment regarding community values that may be used in the development of the scope for a new Environmental Impact Statement process. The specific topic areas were developed from the project objectives from the Environmental Impact Statement process in the 1990s. Following the Nov. 11 work session, Probolsky Research developed a postcard, which was mailed to every voter individually. Some households received multiple postcards, one for each voter. Each postcard included a unique code tied to one voter and could not be used more than once. Only some received follow up calls, emails and text messages encouraging their participation. Not all voters received these follow up calls, however, because the scientific survey was balanced to Aspen registered voters and they were only contacted again if they fell within a demographic that had not already responded in large enough numbers. 2 Respondents had access to the alignment maps. The mailer that went to all voters included the maps. People using an online survey had the maps on the screens with the questions and if they took the survey via telephone, people were directed to go to https://aspenroutes.com. This survey was open from November 23 through December 3. Ten percent of the interviews were conducted by phone and 90 percent were completed online. The scientific results include the results from 300 respondents, which follows the parameters of science-based research. Probolsky Research subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research methods, and the scientific survey results are reflective of the City of Aspen voter population. With direction from the Aspen City Council on December 3, staff asked the survey company to extend the survey to reach as many people as possible. The larger dataset is a mishmash of voters, which represents a less diverse subset of the City of Aspen voter profile. Though the 649 responses in the non-scientific survey were all voters, the non- scientific survey includes a disproportionately older, whiter, more Democratic, and college-educated group than exists within the registered voter profile. Probolsky Research cautioned these unbalanced results from the survey, which was open from November 23 through December 12, should be viewed as unreliable data. The survey results from Probolsky Research will be incorporated in the pre-NEPA process by Jacobs Engineering. Throughout the pre-NEPA and NEPA process there will be several opportunities for public comment for users of SH 82, including both Aspen voters and residents of the greater Roaring Fork and Colorado River Valleys. ATTACHMENTS: Probolsky Research City of Aspen Scientific Results Probolksy Research City of Aspen Unbalanced CITY MANAGER NOTES: ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ 3 City of Aspen Entrance to Aspen Survey Results Presentation (intentionally unreliable data) December 2024 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy PROBOLSKY RESEARCH 23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 4 City of Aspen – Entrance to Aspen Survey (intentionally unreliable data) Survey Methodology* *Due to rounding, totals shown on charts may not add up to 100%1 The sample was compiled from data obtained from the Pitkin County Clerk and Recorder’s Office . We called, emailed, mailed, and texted voters. Sample Data Collection Explained Probolsky Research is a Latina- and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. Interviews were conducted by phone (10 %) and online (90 %) modes. Phone interviews were conducted via landline (34 %) or mobile (66 %). Online participants were invited by email (12 %), mail (76 %), and text message (12 %). Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (99 %) and Spanish (1%). The online survey was accessible by computer, tablet, and smart phone. Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once. Survey Details Mode Phone (landline and mobile) Online (email, mail, and text to web) Language English and Spanish Length 12 minutes Target Respondents City of Aspen voters Survey Fielding November 23 – December 12, 2024 Margin of Error +/-4% Survey Participants 649 5 2 Aspen voters say housing affordability and transportation, traffic, and roads are the most important issues facing the City Question 1: In your own words, what do you feel is the most important issue facing Aspen today? [OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE] 24.2% 21.6% 16.6% 11.2% 6.9% 4.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% Housing affordability Transportation/Traffic/Roads Infrastructure/Castle creek bridge Over population/Controlling growth/Development Cost of living/Affordability Loss of community Government Environmental issues Jobs/Economy Public safety/Drugs/Crime Immigration/Illegal immigration Healthcare Security/Terrorism Homelessness Other Nothing/None Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 6 3 70% say it is important that any Entrance to Aspen project is community-led and inclusive of Roaring Fork Valley residents Question 2: How important is it to you that the process is community -led and inclusive of Roaring Fork Valley residents in a ny solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 69.5% 29.3% 1.2% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 7 4 86% say traffic congestion and improved travel times are important in any Entrance to Aspen solution Question 3: How important is it to you that traffic congestion and travel times are improved in any solution for the Entr ance to Aspen? 85.5% 13.9% 0.6% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 8 5 70% say an increased use of public transit, such as greater use of buses and multi -modal options is important Question 4: How important is it to you that there is an increased use of public transit, such as greater use of buses and multi-modal options, in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 70.1% 28.8% 1.1% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 9 6 72% say a commitment to the environment and protecting wildlife are important in any Entrance to Aspen solution Question 5: How important is it to you that there is a commitment to the environment and protecting wildlife in any solut ion for the Entrance to Aspen? 71.6% 27.4% 0.9% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 10 7 68% say any selected alternative having majority acceptance from the Aspen community is important Question 6: How important is it to you that any alternative selected for the Entrance of Aspen has majority acceptance fr om the Aspen community? 68.0% 30.0% 2.0% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 11 8 61% say the cost of a potential alternative in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen is important Question 7: How important is the cost of a potential alternative in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 60.6% 37.8% 1.7% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 12 9 67% say the cost of the project being paid by Aspen taxpayers with limited state/federal assistance is important Question 8: The chosen solution for the Entrance to Aspen could cost approximately $150 million and could be paid for by Aspen taxpayers with limited or no state or federal assistance. How important is this fact when considering any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 66.6% 29.3% 4.2% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 13 10 84% say any alternative ensuring multiple ways for residents to leave Aspen by vehicle in times of emergencies in the down valley direction is important Question 9: How important is it to you that any Entrance to Aspen alternative ensures multiple ways for residents to leav e the city by vehicle in times of emergencies in the down valley direction? 83.7% 16.0% 0.3% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 14 11 76% of Aspen voters said it was important that the bridge alternatives fits the character of the community and is aesthetically acceptable to the public Question 10: How important is it to you that any Entrance to Aspen alternative fits the character of the community and is aesthetically acceptable to the public? 75.7% 23.6% 0.8% Important Unimportant Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 15 12 “Emergency access” and “livable communities” are the top two values listed by Aspen voters Question 11: Out of the list of values initially put together by the Aspen community during the 1990s, please indicate wh ich values you think are very important to you personally. Select all that apply. 66.6% 56.5% 53.0% 45.0% 42.5% 40.8% 38.1% 37.3% 32.4% 32.0% 21.6% 2.0% 0.6% Emergency access Livable communities Safety Environmentally sound alternative Community acceptability Transportation capacity Clean air act requirements Financial limitations Project phasing Community-based planning Other None of these Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 16 13 68% of Aspen voters are concerned about increasing traffic and congestion during construction Question 12: How concerned are you about increased traffic and congestion during construction? 67.6% 31.7% 0.6% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 17 14 53% are concerned about the impacts on Marolt Open Space wildlife Question 13: Wildlife use the Marolt Open Space for fawning, nesting, resting, and foraging, many people use the trails, and some bring their dogs there too. How concerned are you about possible impacts to these uses? 53.3% 46.2% 0.5% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 18 15 50% of Aspen voters said they are unconcerned that CDOT move forward without approval or input of Aspen voters Question 14: As of 2022, the bridge inspection rating by CDOT was 50.3 out of 100. If the rating falls below 50 then CDOT may be able to implement the approved 1998 preferred alternative. How concerned are you about CDOT moving the process forward with addressing the Entrance to Aspen without additi onal input or approval by Aspen voters? 49.8%48.4% 1.8% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 19 16 69% of Aspen voters are willing to consider an Entrance to Aspen solution that utilizes Marolt Open Space for automobile transportation Question 15: Are you willing to consider an Entrance to Aspen solution that utilizes Marolt Open Space for automobile tra nsportation? 68.9% 24.5% 6.6% Yes No Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 20 17 47% of Aspen voters first choice is the modified direct alternative Question 16. From the following four Castle Creek Bridge replacement alternatives, please rank the options with 1 representin g your top choice, two your second choice, and so on. 41.8% 27.7% 19.7% 10.8% Split Shot Modified Split Shot 3 Lane Shift Modified Direct 38.2% 25.3% 20.0% 16.5% Modified Split Shot Split Shot Modified Direct 3 Lane Shift 41.6% 22.0% 19.6% 16.8% 3 Lane Shift Modified Direct Split Shot Modified Split Shot 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice 47.1% 22.2% 17.3% 13.4% Modified Direct 3 Lane Shift Modified Split Shot Split Shot (intentionally unreliable data) 21 18 47% of Aspen voters first choice is the modified direct alternative Question 16. From the following four Castle Creek Bridge replacement alternatives, please rank the options with 1 representin g your top choice, two your second choice, and so on. 19.6%16.8% 41.6% 22.0% 25.3%28.2% 16.5% 20.0% 41.8%27.7%19.7% 10.8% 13.4%17.3%22.2% 47.1% Split ShotModified Split Shot3 Lane ShiftModified Direct 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice (intentionally unreliable data) 22 19 23% of Aspen voters mentioned traffic relief/road lanes/public transit as another concern Question 17: Is there anything we did not cover in the survey that you would like to share? 22.8% 8.5% 8.2% 7.9% 4.9% 4.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 6.5% 29.6% 0.9% Traffic relief/Road lanes/Public transit Get it done/Stop wasting time Development/Modified direct/Aspen entrance Infrastructure/Bridge repair Destruction of marolt open space Misleading survey/Bad survey Incompetent city government Need more information Environmental concerns Other Nothing/None Unsure (intentionally unreliable data) 23 20 Demographics 24 21 Gender Age Group Ethnicity Party Preference Respondent demographics by gender, age group, ethnicity, party preference, education level, and years of residency Education Level Years of Residency 37.8% 8.6% 53.6% Democratic Republican No Party Preference 50.8% 49.2% Male Female 8.3% 14.5% 16.0% 31.4% 29.7% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 12.9% 10.3% 12.9% 26.0% 37.4% 0-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11-19 years 20+ years 3.4% 79.8% 0.3% 1.2% 3.7% 11.6% Latino/Hispanic White/Caucasian Black/African American Asian/Pacific Islander Other Prefer not to answer 29.4% 70.6% Non- college College (intentionally unreliable data) 25 PROBOLSKY RESEARCH 23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Questions ? Rose Regio, Research Assistant O: 415 -870-8150 Adam Probolsky, President O: 949 -855-6400 | M: 949 -697-6726 E: adamp@probolskyresearch.com San Francisco (415) 870-8150 (intentionally unreliable data) 26 City of Aspen Entrance to Aspen Survey Executive Results Presentation December 2024 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy PROBOLSKY RESEARCH 23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 27 City of Aspen – Entrance to Aspen Survey Survey Methodology* *Due to rounding, totals shown on charts may not add up to 100%1 Survey Details Mode Phone (landline and mobile) and Online (email and text to web) Language English and Spanish Length 4 minutes (online) 6 minutes (phone) Target Respondents Likely California General Election voters Survey Fielding August 4 – August 9, 2022 Survey Participants 900 The sample was compiled from data obtained from the Pitkin County Clerk and Recorder’s Office. We called, emailed, mailed, and texted voters. We matched the demographics of City of Aspen voters. Sample Data Collection Explained Probolsky Research is a Latina- and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. Interviews were conducted by phone (10%) and online (90%) modes. Phone interviews were conducted via landline (28%) or mobile (72%). Online participants were invited by email (11%), mail (78%), and text message (11%). Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (99%) and Spanish (1%). The online survey was accessible by computer, tablet, and smart phone. Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once. Survey Details Mode Phone (landline and mobile) Online (email, mail, and text to web) Language English and Spanish Length 12 minutes Target Respondents City of Aspen voters Survey Fielding November 23 – December 3, 2024 Margin of Error +/-5.8% Survey Participants 300 28 2 Aspen voters say transportation, traffic, and roads are the most important issues facing the City Question 1: In your own words, what do you feel is the most important issue facing Aspen today? [OPEN-ENDED RESPONSE] 25.3% 22.3% 14.0% 11.0% 5.7% 5.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% Transportation/Traffic/Roads Housing affordability Infrastructure/Castle Creek Bridge Over population/Controlling growth/Development Loss of community Cost of living/Affordability Government Environmental issues Jobs/Economy Public safety/Drugs/Crime Healthcare Immigration/Illegal immigration Other 29 3 71% say it is important that any Entrance to Aspen project is community-led and inclusive of Roaring Fork Valley residents Question 2: How important is it to you that the process is community-led and inclusive of Roaring Fork Valley residents in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 71.0% 27.7% 1.3% Important Unimportant Unsure 30 4 86% say traffic congestion and improved travel times are important in any Entrance to Aspen solution Question 3: How important is it to you that traffic congestion and travel times are improved in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 86.3% 13.3% 0.3% Important Unimportant Unsure 31 5 69% say an increased use of public transit, such as greater use of buses and multi-modal options is important Question 4: How important is it to you that there is an increased use of public transit, such as greater use of buses and multi-modal options, in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 69.0% 30.3% 0.7% Important Unimportant Unsure 32 6 70% say a commitment to the environment and protecting wildlife are important in any Entrance to Aspen solution Question 5: How important is it to you that there is a commitment to the environment and protecting wildlife in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 70.3% 29.0% 0.7% Important Unimportant Unsure 33 7 66% say any selected alternative having majority acceptance from the Aspen community is important Question 6: How important is it to you that any alternative selected for the Entrance of Aspen has majority acceptance from the Aspen community? 66.0% 30.7% 3.3% Important Unimportant Unsure 34 8 60% say the cost of a potential alternative in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen is important Question 7: How important is the cost of a potential alternative in any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 60.3% 38.7% 1.0% Important Unimportant Unsure 35 9 69% say the cost of the project being paid by Aspen taxpayers with limited state/federal assistance is important Question 8: The chosen solution for the Entrance to Aspen could cost approximately $150 million and could be paid for by Aspen taxpayers with limited or no state or federal assistance. How important is this fact when considering any solution for the Entrance to Aspen? 68.7% 27.7% 3.7% Important Unimportant Unsure 36 10 83% say any alternative ensuring multiple ways for residents to leave Aspen by vehicle in times of emergencies in the down valley direction is important Question 9: How important is it to you that any Entrance to Aspen alternative ensures multiple ways for residents to leave the city by vehicle in times of emergencies in the down valley direction? 83.3% 16.3% 0.3% Important Unimportant Unsure 37 11 73% of Aspen voters said it was important that the bridge alternatives fits the character of the community and is aesthetically acceptable to the public Question 10: How important is it to you that any Entrance to Aspen alternative fits the character of the community and is aesthetically acceptable to the public? 73.0% 25.3% 1.7% Important Unimportant Unsure 38 12 “Emergency access” and “livable communities” are the top two values listed by Aspen voters Question 11: Out of the list of values initially put together by the Aspen community during the 1990s, please indicate which values you think are very important to you personally. Select all that apply. 65.0% 54.3% 51.7% 43.7% 39.0% 37.3% 37.3% 35.0% 31.7% 30.0% 24.7% 3.0% 1.3% Emergency access Livable communities Safety Environmentally sound alternative Transportation capacity Community acceptability Clean air act requirements Financial limitations Community-based planning Project phasing Other None of these Unsure 39 13 66% of Aspen voters are concerned about increasing traffic and congestion during construction Question 12: How concerned are you about increased traffic and congestion during construction? 65.7% 33.3% 1.0% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure 40 14 Aspen voters are split on how concerned they are about the impacts on Marolt Open Space wildlife Question 13: Wildlife use the Marolt Open Space for fawning, nesting, resting, and foraging, many people use the trails, and some bring their dogs there too. How concerned are you about possible impacts to these uses? 49.7%49.7% 0.7% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure 41 15 50% of Aspen voters said they are unconcerned that CDOT move forward without approval or input of Aspen voters Question 14: As of 2022, the bridge inspection rating by CDOT was 50.3 out of 100. If the rating falls below 50 then CDOT may be able to implement the approved 1998 preferred alternative. How concerned are you about CDOT moving the process forward with addressing the Entrance to Aspen without additional input or approval by Aspen voters? 47.0%50.3% 2.7% Concerned Unconcerned Unsure 42 16 70% of Aspen voters are willing to consider an Entrance to Aspen solution that utilizes Marolt Open Space for automobile transportation Question 15: Are you willing to consider an Entrance to Aspen solution that utilizes Marolt Open Space for automobile transportation? 69.7% 23.7% 6.7% Yes No Unsure 43 17 52% of Aspen voters first choice is the modified direct alternative Question 16. From the following four Castle Creek Bridge replacement alternatives, please rank the options with 1 representing your top choice, two your second choice, and so on. 51.7% 25.7% 13.0% 9.7% Modified Direct 3 Lane Shift Split Shot Modified Split Shot 42.0% 35.0% 12.0% 11.0% Split Shot Modified Split Shot 3 Lane Shift Modified Direct 36.0% 32.3% 17.3% 14.3% Modified Split Shot Split Shot 3 Lane Shift Modified Direct 45.0% 23.0% 19.3% 12.7% 3 Lane Shift Modified Direct Modified Split Shot Split Shot 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice 44 18 52% of Aspen voters first choice is the modified direct alternative Question 16. From the following four Castle Creek Bridge replacement alternatives, please rank the options with 1 representing your top choice, two your second choice, and so on. 19.3%12.7% 45.0% 23.0% 36.0% 32.3% 17.3% 14.3% 35.0% 42.0%12.0% 11.0% 9.7%13.0% 25.7% 51.7% Modified Split ShotSplit Shot3 Lane ShiftModified Direct 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice 45 19 20% of Aspen voters mentioned traffic relief/road lanes/public transit as another concern Question 17: Is there anything we did not cover in the survey that you would like to share? 19.7% 10.3% 10.3% 7.3% 5.0% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 6.7% 31.0% Traffic relief/Road lanes/Public transit Infrastructure/Bridge repair Get it done/Stop wasting time Development/Modified direct/Aspen entrance Destruction of marolt open space Misleading survey/Bad survey Need more information Environmental concerns Incompetent city government Other Nothing/None 46 20 Demographics 47 21 Gender Age Group Ethnicity Party Preference Respondent demographics by gender, age group, ethnicity, party preference, education level, and years of residency Education Level Years of Residency 35.3% 12.0% 52.7% Democratic Republican No Party Preference 51.7% 48.3% Male Female 13.7% 18.3% 16.0% 27.7% 24.3% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 13.0% 12.7% 13.3% 31.0% 29.3% 0-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11-19 years 20+ years 5.7% 74.3% 0.3% 2.0% 6.3% 11.3% Latino/Hispanic White/Caucasian Black/African American Asian/Pacific Islander Other Prefer not to answer 35.0% 65.0% Non- college College 48 PROBOLSKY RESEARCH 23 Corporate Plaza Suite 150 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 Washington DC (202) 559-0270 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Questions? Joshua Emeneger, Senior Research Analyst O: 202-559-0270 Adam Probolsky, President O: 949-855-6400 | M: 949-697-6726 E: adamp@probolskyresearch.com San Francisco (415) 870-8150 49