HomeMy WebLinkAboutresolution.council.015-26RESOLUTION 4015
(Series of 2026)
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF ASPEN,
COLORADO, APPROVING A CONTRACT BETWEEN THE CITY OF ASPEN
AND APEX ANALYTIC S AND AUTHORIZING THE CITY MANAGER TO
EXECUTE SAID CONTRACT ON BEHALF OF THE CITY OF ASPEN,
COLORADO.
WI�REAS, there has been submitted to the City Council a contract for
Professional Services, between the City of Aspen and APEX Analytics, a true and
accurate copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit "A",
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF
THE CITY OF ASPEN, COLORADO,
That the City Council of the City of Aspen hereby approves that Contract
for Professional Services, between the City of Aspen and APEX Analytics, a copy
of which is annexed hereto and incorporated herein, and does hereby authorize the
City Manager to execute said agreement on behalf of the City of Aspen.
RESOLVED, APPROVED, AND ADOPTED FINALLY by the City
Council of the City of Aspen on the 24th day of February 2026.
hael Richards, �Vlayor
I, Nicole Henning, duly appointed and acting City Clerk do certify that the
foregoing is a true and accurate copy of that resolution adopted by the City
Council of the City of Aspen, Colorado, at a meeting held February 24, 2026.
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CITY OF ASPEN STANDARD FORM OF AGREEMENT
PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
AGREEMENT made the 12th day of December, 2025.
BETWEEN the City:
The City of Aspen
427 Rio Grande Place
Aspen, Colorado 81611
Phone: (970) 920-5079
And the Professional:
Apex Analytics, LLC
2500 30th Street, Suite 207
Boulder, CO 80301
US
720-773-9416
noah@apexanalyticsllc.com
For the Following Project:
Aspen Electrification Study
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Lr
�T Y OF ASPEN
City of Aspen Contract No.: 2025-067
Contract Amount:
Total: $132,175.00
y
If this Agreement requires the City to pay
an amount of monein excess of
$100,000.00 it shall not be deemed valid
until it has been approved by the City
Counci
l of the City of Aspen.
Exhibits appended and made a part of this Agreement:
Exhibit A: Scope of Work and Fee Schedule.
ity Council Approval:
C
Date: 02/17/2026
Resolution No.: 202&015
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The City and Professional agree as set forth below.
l . Scope of Work. Professional shall perform in a competent and professional manner the Scope
of Work as set forth at Exhibit A attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein.
2. Completion. Professional shall commence Work immediately upon receipt of a written Notice
to Proceed from the City and complete all phases of the Scope of Work as expeditiously as is
consistent with professional skill and care and the orderly progress of the Work in a timely manner.
The parties anticipate that all Work pursuant to this Agreement shall be completed no later than June
30, 2026. Upon request of the City, Professional shall submit, for the City's approval, a schedule for
the performance of Professional's services which shall be adjusted as required as the project proceeds,
and which shall include allowances for periods of time required by the City's project engineer for
review and approval of submissions and for approvals of authorities having jurisdiction over the
project. This schedule, when approved by the City, shall not, except for reasonable cause, be exceeded
by the Professional.
3. Payment. In consideration of the work performed, City shall pay Professional on a time and
expense basis for all work performed. The hourly rates for work performed by Professional shall not
exceed those hourly rates set forth at Exhibit A appended hereto. Except as otherwise mutually agreed
to by the parties the payments made to Professional shall not initially exceed the amount set forth
above. Professional shall submit, in timely fashion, invoices for work performed. The City shall
review such invoices and, if they are considered incorrect or untimely, the City shall review the matter
with Professional within ten days from receipt of the Professional's bill.
4. Non-Assi nability. Both parties recognize that this Agreement is one for personal services
and cannot be transferred, assigned, or sublet by either party without prior written consent of the other.
Sub -Contracting, if authorized, shall not relieve the Professional of any of the responsibilities or
obligations under this Agreement. Professional shall be and remain solely responsible to the City for
the acts, errors, omissions or neglect of any subcontractors' officers, agents and employees, each of
whom shall, for this purpose be deemed to be an agent or employee of the Professional to the extent
of the subcontract. The City shall not be obligated to pay or be liable for payment of any sums due
which may be due to any sub -contractor.
5. Termination of Procurement. The sale contemplated by this Agreement may be canceled
by the City prior to acceptance by the City whenever for any reason and in its sole discretion the
City shall determine that such cancellation is in its best interests and convenience.
6. Termination of Professional Services. The Professional or the City may terminate the
Professional Services component of this Agreement, without specifying the reason therefor, by
giving notice, in writing, addressed to the other party, specifying the effective date of the termination.
No fees shall be earned after the effective date of the termination. Upon any termination, all finished
or unfinished documents, data, studies, surveys, drawings, maps, models, photographs, reports or
other material prepared by the Professional pursuant to this Agreement shall become the property of
the City. Notwithstanding the above, Professional shall not be relieved of any liability to the City for
damages sustained by the City by virtue of any breach of this Agreement by the Professional, and
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the City may withhold any payments to the Professional for the purposes of set-off until such time
as the exact amount of damages due the City from the Professional may be determined.
7. Independent Contractor Status. It is expressly acknowledged and understood by the parties
that nothing contained in this agreement shall result in or be construed as establishing an employment
relationship. Professional shall be, and shall perform as, an independent Contractor who agrees to
use his or her best efforts to provide the said services on behalf of the City. No agent, employee, or
servant of Professional shall be, or shall be deemed to be, the employee, agent or servant of the City.
City is interested only in the results obtained under this contract. The manner and means of
conducting the work are under the sole control of Professional. None of the benefits provided by City
to its employees including, but not limited to, workers' compensation insurance and unemployment
insurance, are available from City to the employees, agents or servants of Professional. Professional
shall be solely and entirely responsible for its acts and for the acts of Professional's agents, employees,
servants and subcontractors during the performance of this contract. Professional shall indemnify
City against all liability and loss in connection with and shall assume full responsibility for payment
of all federal, state and local taxes or contributions imposed or required under unemployment
insurance, social security and income tax law, with respect to Professional and/or Professional's
employees engaged in the performance of the services agreed to herein.
8. Indemnification. Professional agrees to indemnify and hold harmless the City, its officers,
employees, insurers, and self-insurance pool, from and against all liability, claims, and demands, on
account of injury, loss, or damage, including without limitation claims arising from bodily injury,
personal injury, sickness, disease, death, property loss or damage, or any other loss of any kind
whatsoever, which arise out of or are in any manner connected with this contract, to the extent and
For an amount represented by the degree or percentage such injury, loss, or damage is caused in whole
or in part by, or is claimed to be caused in whole or in part by, the wrongful act, omission, error,
professional error, mistake, negligence, or other fault of the Professional, any subcontractor of the
Professional, or any officer, employee, representative, or agent of the Professional or of any
subcontractor of the Professional, or which arises out of any workmen's compensation claim of any
employee of the Professional or of any employee of any subcontractor of the Professional. The
Professional agrees to investigate, handle, respond to, and to provide defense for and defend against,
any such liability, claims or demands at the sole expense of the Professional, or at the option of the
City, agrees to pay the City or reimburse the City for the defense costs incurred by the City in
connection with, any such liability, claims, or demands. If it is determined by the final judgment of a
court of competent jurisdiction that such injury, loss, or damage was caused in whole or in part by the
act, omission, or other fault of the City, its officers, or its employees, the City shall reimburse the
Professional for the portion of the judgment attributable to such act, omission, or other fault of the
City, its officers, or employees.
9. Professional's Insurance.
(a) Professional agrees to procure and maintain, at its own expense, a policy or policies
of insurance sufficient to insure against all liability, claims, demands, and other obligations
assumed by the Professional pursuant to Section 8 above. Such insurance shall be in addition
to any other insurance requirements imposed by this contract or by law. The Professional shall
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not be relieved of any liability, claims, demands, or other obligations assumed pursuant to
Section 8 above by reason of its failure to procure or maintain insurance, or by reason of its
failure to procure or maintain insurance in sufficient amounts, duration, or types.
(b) Professional shall procure and maintain, and shall cause any subcontractor of the
Professional to procure and maintain, the minimum insurance coverages listed below. Such
coverages shall be procured and maintained with forms and insurance acceptable to the City.
All coverages shall be continuously maintained to cover all liability, claims, demands, and
other obligations assumed by the Professional pursuant to Section 8 above. In the case of any
claims -made policy, the necessary retroactive dates and extended reporting periods shall be
procured to maintain such continuous coverage.
(i) Worker's Compensation insurance to cover obligations imposed by applicable
laws for any employee engaged in the performance of work under this contract, and
Employers' Liability insurance with minimum limits of ONE MILLION DOLLARS
($1,000,000.00) for each accident, ONE MILLION DOLLARS ($1,000,000.00)
disease - policy limit, and ONE MILLION DOLLARS ($1,000,000.00) disease - each
employee. Evidence of qualified self -insured status may be substituted for the
Worker's Compensation requirements of this paragraph.
(ii) Commercial General Liability insurance with minimum combined single
limits of TWO MILLION DOLLARS ($2,000,000.00) each occurrence and THREE
MILLION DOLLARS ($3,000,000.00) aggregate. The policy shall be applicable to
all premises and operations. The policy shall include coverage for bodily injury, broad
form property damage (including completed operations), personal injury (including
coverage for contractual and employee acts), blanket contractual, independent
contractors, products, and completed operations. The policy shall include coverage
for explosion, collapse, and underground hazards. The policy shall contain a
severability of interests provision.
(iii) Comprehensive Automobile Liability insurance with minimum combined
single limits for bodily injury and property damage of not less than ONE MILLION
DOLLARS ($1, 000, 000. 00) each occurrence and TWO MILLION DOLLARS
($2, 000, 000.00) aggregate with respect to each Professional's owned, hired and non -
owned vehicles assigned to or used in performance of the Scope of Work. The policy
shall contain a severability of interests provision. If the Professional has no owned
automobiles, the requirements of this Section shall be met by each employee of the
Professional providing services to the City under this contract.
(iv) Professional Liability insurance with the minimum limits of ONE MILLION
DOLLARS ($1,000,000) each claim and TWO MILLION DOLLARS ($2,000,000)
aggregate.
(c) The policy or policies required above shall be endorsed to include the City and the City's
officers and employees as additional insureds. Every policy required above shall be primary
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insurance, and any insurance carried by the City, its officers or employees, or carried by or
provided through any insurance pool of the City, shall be excess and not contributory
insurance to that provided by Professional. No additional insured endorsement to the policy
required above shall contain any exclusion for bodily injury or property damage arising from
completed operations. The Professional shall be solely responsible for any deductible losses
under any policy required above.
(d) The certificate of insurance provided to the City shall be completed by the Professional's
insurance agent as evidence that policies providing the required coverages, conditions, and
minimum limits are in full force and effect, and shall be reviewed and approved by the City
prior to commencement of the contract. No other form of certificate shall be used. The
certificate shall identify this contract and shall provide that the coverages afforded under the
policies shall not be canceled, terminated or materially changed until at least thirty (30) days
prior written notice has been given to the City.
(e) Failure on the part of the Professional to procure or maintain policies providing the
required coverages, conditions, and minimum limits shall constitute a material breach of
contract upon which City may immediately terminate this contract, or at its discretion City
may procure or renew any such policy or any extended reporting period thereto and may pay
any and all premiums in connection therewith, and all monies so paid by City shall be repaid
by Professional to City upon demand, or City may offset the cost of the premiums against
monies due to Professional from City.
(f) City reserves the right to request and receive a certified copy of any policy and any
endorsement thereto.
(g) The parties hereto understand and agree that City is relying on, and does not waive or
intend to waive by any provision of this contract, the monetary limitations (presently
$350,000.00 per person and $990,000 per occurrence) or any other rights, immunities, and
protections provided by the Colorado Governmental Immunity Act, Section 24-10-101 etseq.,
C.R.S., as from time to time amended, or otherwise available to City, its officers, or its
employees.
10. City's Insurance. The parties hereto understand that the City is a member of the Colorado
Intergovernmental Risk Sharing Agency (CIRSA) and as such participates in the CIRSA
Property/Casualty Pool. Copies of the CIRSA policies and manual are kept at the City of Aspen Risk
Management Department and are available to Professional for inspection during normal business
hours. City makes no representations whatsoever with respect to specific coverages offered by
CIRSA. City shall provide Professional reasonable notice of any changes in its membership or
participation in CIRSA.
11. Completeness of Agreement. It is expressly agreed that this agreement contains the entire
undertaking of the parties relevant to the subject matter thereof and there are no verbal or written
representations, agreements, warranties or promises pertaining to the project matter thereof not
expressly incorporated in this writing.
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12. Notice. Any written notices as called for herein may be hand delivered or mailed by certified
mail return receipt requested to the respective persons and/or addresses listed above.
13. Non -Discrimination. No discrimination because of race, color, creed, sex, marital status,
affectional or sexual orientation, family responsibility, national origin, ancestry, handicap, or religion
shall be made in the employment of persons to perform services under this contract. Professional
agrees to meet all of the requirements of City's municipal code, Section 15.04.570, pertaining to non-
discrimination in employment.
Any business that enters into a contract for goods or services with the City of Aspen or any of its
boards, agencies, or departments shall:
(a) Implement an employment nondiscrimination policy prohibiting discrimination in
hiring, discharging, promoting or demoting, matters of compensation, or any other
employment -related decision or benefit on account of actual or perceived race,
color, religion, national origin, gender, physical or mental disability, age, military
status, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, or marital or
familial status.
(b) Not discriminate in the performance of the contract on account of actual or
perceived race, color, religion, national origin, gender, physical or mental
disability, age, military status, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender
expression, or marital or familial status.
(c) Incorporate the foregoing provisions in all subcontracts hereunder.
14. Waiver. The waiver by the City of any term, covenant, or condition hereof shall not operate
as a waiver of any subsequent breach of the same or any other term. No term, covenant, or condition
of this Agreement can be waived except by the written consent of the City, and forbearance or
indulgence by the City in any regard whatsoever shall not constitute a waiver of any term, covenant,
or condition to be performed by Professional to which the same may apply and, until complete
performance by Professional of said term, covenant or condition, the City shall be entitled to invoke
any remedy available to it under this Agreement or by law despite any such forbearance or indulgence.
15. Execution of Agreement by City. This Agreement shall be binding upon all parties hereto
and their respective heirs, executors, administrators, successors, and assigns. Notwithstanding
anything to the contrary contained herein, this Agreement shall not be binding upon the City unless
July executed by the City Manager of the City of Aspen (or a duly authorized official in the City
Manager's absence) and if above $100,000, following a Motion or Resolution of the Council of the
City of Aspen authorizing the City Manager (or other duly authorized official in the City Manager's
absence) to execute the same.
16. Warranties Against Contingent Fees, Gratuities, Kickbacks and Conflicts of Interest.
(a) Professional warrants that no person or selling agency has been employed or retained
to solicit or secure this Contract upon an agreement or understanding for a commission,
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percentage, brokerage, or contingent fee, excepting bona fide employees or bona fide
established commercial or selling agencies maintained by the Professional for the purpose
of securing business.
(b) Professional agrees not to give any employee of the City a gratuity or any offer of
employment in connection with any decision, approval, disapproval, recommendation,
preparation of any part of a program requirement or a purchase request, influencing the
content of any specification or procurement standard, rendering advice, investigation,
auditing, or in any other advisory capacity in any proceeding or application, request for
ruling, determination, claim or controversy, or other particular matter, pertaining to this
Agreement, or to any solicitation or proposal therefore.
(c) Professional represents that no official, officer, employee or representative of the
City during the term of this Agreement has or one (1) year thereafter shall have any interest,
direct or indirect, in this Agreement or the proceeds thereof, except those that may have
been disclosed at the time City Council approved the execution of this Agreement.
(d) In addition to other remedies it may have for breach of the prohibitions against
contingent fees, gratuities, kickbacks and conflict of interest, the City shall have the right
to:
1. Cancel this Purchase Agreement without any liability by the City;
2. Debar or suspend the offending parties from being a Professional, contractor or
subcontractor under City contracts,
3. Deduct from the contract price or consideration, or otherwise recover, the value of
anything transferred or received by the Professional; and
4. Recover such value from the offending parties.
17. Fund Availability. Financial obligations of the City payable after the current fiscal year
are contingent upon funds for that purpose being appropriated, budgeted and otherwise made
available. If this Agreement contemplates the City utilizing state or federal funds to meet its
obligations herein, this Agreement shall be contingent upon the availability of those funds for
payment pursuant to the terms of this Agreement.
18. General Terms.
(a) It is agreed that neither this Agreement nor any of its terms, provisions, conditions,
representations or covenants can be modified, changed, terminated or amended, waived,
superseded or extended except by appropriate written instrument fully executed by the parties.
(b) If any of the provisions of this Agreement shall be held invalid, illegal or
unenforceable it shall not affect or impair the validity, legality or enforceability of any other
provision.
(c) The parties acknowledge and understand that there are no conditions or limitations to
this understanding except those as contained herein at the time of the execution hereof and
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that after execution no alteration, change or modification shall be made except upon a writing
signed by the parties.
(d) This Agreement shall be governed by the laws of the State of Colorado as from time
to time in effect. Venue is agreed to be exclusively in the courts of Pitkin County, Colorado.
19. Electronic Signatures and Electronic Records. This Agreement and any amendments
hereto may be executed in several counterparts, each of which shall be deemed an original, and
all of which together shall constitute one agreement binding on the Parties, notwithstanding the
possible event that all Parties may not have signed the same counterpart. Furthermore, each Party
consents to the use of electronic signatures by either Party. The Scope of Work, and any other
documents requiring a signature hereunder, may be signed electronically in the manner agreed to
by the Parties. The Parties agree not to deny the legal effect or enforceability of the Agreement
solely because it is in electronic form or because an electronic record was used in its formation.
The Parties agree not to object to the admissibility of the Agreement in the form of an electronic
record, or a paper copy of an electronic documents, or a paper copy of a document bearing an
electronic signature, on the grounds that it is an electronic record or electronic signature or that it
is not in its original form or is not an original.
20. Successors and Assigns. This Agreement and all of the covenants hereof shall inure to
the benefit of and be binding upon the City and the Professional respectively and their agents,
representatives, employee, successors, assigns and legal representatives. Neither the City nor the
Professional shall have the right to assign, transfer or sublet its interest or obligations hereunder
without the written consent of the other party.
21. Third Parties. This Agreement does not and shall not be deemed or construed to confer
upon or grant to any third party or parties, except to parties to whom Professional or City may
assign this Agreement in accordance with the specific written permission, any right to claim
damages or to bring any suit, action or other proceeding against either the City or Professional
because of any breach hereof or because of any of the terms, covenants, agreements or conditions
herein contained.
22. Attorneys Fees. In the event that legal action is necessary to enforce any of the
provisions of this Agreement, the prevailing party shall be entitled to its costs and reasonable
attorney's fees.
23. Waiver of Presumption. This Agreement was negotiated and reviewed through the
mutual efforts of the parties hereto and the parties agree that no construction shall be made or
presumption shall arise for or against either party based on any alleged unequal status of the parties
in the negotiation, review or drafting of the Agreement.
24. Certification Regarding Debarment, Suspension, Ineligibility, and Voluntary Exclusion.
Professional certifies, by acceptance of this Agreement, that neither it nor its principals is presently
debarred, suspended, proposed for debarment, declared ineligible or voluntarily excluded from
participation in any transaction with a Federal or State department or agency. It further certifies
that prior to submitting its Bid that it did include this clause without modification in all lower tier
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transactions, solicitations, proposals, contracts and subcontracts. In the event that Professional or
any lower tier participant was unable to certify to the statement, an explanation was attached to
the Bid and was determined by the City to be satisfactory to the City.
25. Integration and Modification. This written Agreement along with ail Contract Documents
shall constitute the contract between the parties and supersedes or incorporates any prior written
and oral agreements of the parties. In addition, Professional understands that no City official or
employee, other than the Mayor and City Council acting as a body at a council meeting, has
authority to enter into an Agreement or to modify the terms of the Agreement on behalf of the
City. Any such Agreement or modification to this Agreement must be in writing and be executed
by the parties hereto.
26. The Professional in performing the Services hereunder must comply with all applicable
provisions of Colorado laws for persons with disability, including the provisions of 6624-85401,
et seq., C.R.S., and the Rules Establishing Technology Accessibility Standards, as established by
the Office Of Information Technology pursuant to Section §24-85- 103(2.5) and found at 8 CCR
1501-11. Services rendered hereunder that use information and communication technology, as the
term is defined in Colorado law, including but not limited to websites, applications, software,
videos, and electronic documents must also comply with the latest version of Level AA of the Web
Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG), currently version 2.1. To confirm that the information
and communication technology used, created, developed, or procured in connection with the
Services hereunder meets these standards, Professional may be required to demonstrate
compliance. The Professional shall indemnify the CITY pursuant to the Indemnification section
above in relation to the Professional's failure to comply with §§24-85401, et seq., C.R.S., or the
Technology Accessibility Standards for Individuals with a Disability as established by the Office
of Information Technology pursuant to Section §2445-103(2.5).
27. Additional Provisions. In addition to those provisions set forth herein and in the Contract
Documents, the parties hereto agree as follows:
[ ] No additional provisions are adopted.
[X] See attached Exhibit A.
28. Authorized Representative. The undersigned representative of Professional, as an
inducement to the City to execute this Agreement, represents that he/she is an authorized
representative of Professional for the purposes of executing this Agreement and that he/she has
full and complete authority to enter into this Agreement for the terms and conditions specified
herein.
29. Order of Precedence of Contract Documents. The terms and conditions set forth in the
City of Aspen Standard Form of Agreement establish the rights, obligations, and remedies of the
parties. No additional or different terms or conditions, whether contained in bid packets,
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documents, order forms, or any other document or communication pertaining to the agreement will
be binding upon the City of Aspen unless accepted in writing by an authorized representative of
the City. In the case of conflicts or inconsistencies between the City of Aspen Standard Form of
Agreement and any other document attached thereto which cannot be resolved by giving effect to
both provisions, the City of Aspen Standard Form of Agreement shall control.
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IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties hereto have executed, or caused to be executed by their duly
authorized officials, this Agreement of which shall be deemed an original on the date first written
above.
CITY OF A�> neFd a ORADO0
By:
Title:
Date:
j�tft• S{vti,c�t,V'
[Signature,
Pete Strecker
City Manager
3/2/2026 � 8:31:37 PM MST
Approved as to form:
yDocculSigned by:
iCa u wo �i0"Ov
747F1d9El]5d57
City Attorney's Office
By:
PROFESSIONAL:
—Signed by:
uds,
Noah Lieb
Title: Principal and Operations Director
Date: 1/8/2026 � 10:38:08 AM MST
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Submitted by Apex Analytics, LLC
September 26, 2025
Revised January 2, 2026
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C l rants
1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................1
2. Qualifications and Experience. . 4 a a 4 a 0 a a a 8 a a 0 a a 0 0 0 8 0 a a 0 0 4 0 a 4 a 6 * a 0 0 0 0 0 0 a a 0 a a a 0 a a a a 4 0 0 a 0 6 a 0 4 * 0 0 a a a a 0 8 a 4 0 0 a a a 8 a 0 a 8 6 0 a a 0 0 a 0 0 & 4 0 0 0 0 a a a a a a 2
3. Approach to Project...................................................................................................................... 5
Task 0: Project/Task Kickoff. 6 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 a a 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 a 6 6 a a 6 a 6 a 6 a 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a a a 9 6 0 0 6
Task 1: Understand Current Energy Usage and Usage Patterns..............................................................7
Task 1.1: Baseline Summary of Annual Energy Use7
Task 1.2: Baseline Peak Day and Peak Hour Energy Use...... .......:.......:`.. east assesses ........ 8
Task 1.3: Baseline Electrification Adoption........................................`.................................:'..... 8
Task 1.4s Review of Relevant Colorado Electric Utility Landscape........` ................................:`..... 9
Task 1.5, Review of Relevant Alternative Rate Structures.. ................. ...................... ..... 9
Task 1.6: Interim Report...... 0*40 $sees* 0040990669 agootseaso .......10
Task 2: Project Future Adoption of Electric Technologies. . 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 a 6 a 6 6 0 a a a a a a a 0 0 4 0 6 S * 0 6 6 a 6 6 a a a 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a a a 6 a a 0 a 4 a 0 0 0 0 0 a a 0 a a 0 a 10
Task 2.1: Measure Characterization .........................................:.......::......::..................11
Task 2.2: Customer Segmentation. a a a a 0 a a I a a a * 4 a 0 a a 0 0 a a a 8 a 0 a 0 a a 0 a a 0 0 a a 9 a a a a a 0 a a a 0 a 9 a a 0 0 a a 0 0 a a I a 8 a a 0 0 a ......................:...11
Task 2.3: Technical Potential Estimation. . 0 a a a a I a a a a 0 a a a 9 0 a a 0 * 0 0 0 a 0 9 2 9 9 a a a 0 V 0 9 a 0 a 0 4 0 5 a a 2 a a a & a a a 0 a a a a a 0 * a 0 9 9 0 a a a a 0 0 a a a a a a 0 a a a 9 12
Task 2.4: Achievable Potential Estimation .. .. .. 13
Task 3: Innovative Incentives and Programs............ 00*0000 ease*# ovosaea 004$0666*60*444 14
Task 3.1: `Leverage Our Current Work and Benchmarks.....::.......:........:................................:..14
Task 3.2s Fill Gaps Through Industry Expertise..................,......:.................`.......s.............Sees* 15
Task 4: Model Future Grid Requirements................................................................................................15
Task 4.1: Calculate Equipment -Level Grid Impacts............:........:............................................15
Task 4.2: Analyze Potential Demand impact of Distributed Energy Resources ......:.......`...........16
Task5: Reporting............ sees***#* of 06 a a a 6 a 0 0 0 0 0 *Ott** 0 0 0 a * 0 a a a a a 6 a a a 4 0 a 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 0 4 a 6 a a a 0 a a 0 a 0 4 a a 4 0 0 6 6 a a a a a a a 0 a 4 a a 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 a 0 0 a * 0 a 0 a 0 a 0 0 a 0 9 0 0 0 * a 17
Draft Request for Information00000000 6464660 toes*** 17
4. References........ 6 0 0 66 004 toes Sea 04*00 a see asett*0000 0 06*6 ***beat 66*0060 Sea &*ago set a 9
5. Fee Proposal and Schedule........................................................................................................19
Appendix A: Resumes........................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
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1. Introduction
Key Contact: Noah Lieu
noahl@apexanalyticsllc.com
Work: 720-773-9416
APEX
ANALYTICS
I he Apex Analytics (Apex) team proposed for this engagement combines broad experience in
beneficial electrification (both building and transportation sectors), unparalleled Colorado utility
planning and forecasting experience, and local knowledge to provide everything the City of
Aspen (City or Aspen) needs to understand future grid side impacts of electrification along with
any opportunities or problems likely to arise from this transition. Aspen Utilities will likely
receive many responses to this RFP from qualified firms that, like Apex, have led similar studies
across the country far many years. What sets Apex apart, however, is our small team of
employee=owners that have a hands�on approach to working as a trusted partner to our clients
as well as our local Aspen presence. What also sets Apex apart is our objective approach to
understanding complex problems: our team thrives on solving complex utility®centric questions,
yet we remain objective and do not advocate for any particular technology or pre -identified
solution. The Apex advantage includes the following:
Th e A pex Tea m A va nta e
Smell team of utility demand side experts specializing in c!.lstomized analysis and creative thinking
Municipal Utility Beneficial
Electrification Experience
Build on our existing knowledge
and previous work
Team of Experts
We deliver higher quality
with fewer hours
Streamlined Approach
Focus on the most impaciful
measures and their features
Local Project Leadership
Strong understanding of your
context and needs
Noah Lieb, resident of Aspen since 2008, will serve as the project manager, key proposal
contactI and a technical quality assurance advisor to the project (contact information:
noahl@apexanalyticsllc.com; work phone: 720-773-9416, cell phone: 518.354.2334). Noah led
the overall residential building electrification study for Fort Collins and Longmont and Platte
River forecasting. Noah has worked with the Longmont and Fort Collins Utilities over the past
five years, leading the residential impact evaluation efforts while also managing other ad hoc
research efforts for both utilities.
Justin Spencer, resident of Lyons, Colorado, and expert in building electrification, will serve as
the technical engineering lead for this project. Justin was an early proponent of local building
electrification, giving a talk on the topic at the switch energy conference in Boulder, CO in the
fall of 2014. He's an expert in heat pumps and heat pump water heaters and has conducted
several heat pump and heat pump water heater metering studies and forecasting studies over
the last 10 years. He led the residential building electrification measure characterization and
cost-effectiveness work for Fort Collins and Longmont and was the technical lead for the Platte
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P
LYTICS
River Power Authority (PRPA) forecasting project. He was also the DSM study lead for the
Mountain Energy Non -Pipeline Alternatives (NPA) Project for Xcel Energy,
Jordan Mann, Project Director, resident of Boulder, Colorado, will serve as the Task 2
forecasting lead. He brings over a decade of experience in utility research, planning, and
potential study forecasting. Jordan led a recent building characterization study and separately a
heat pump study for the Colorado Energy Office, developed the electrification forecast for the
Mountain Energy NPA project for Xcel Energy, including providing expert witness testimony to
the Colorado Public Utility Commission, and led the most recent Xcel Energy Colorado DSM and
beneficial electrification potential study. Jordan has extensive experience forecasting adoption
rates and resulting grid impacts of electrification programs and has published on the
economics of cold -climate electrification.
Scott Dimetrosky, President and founder of Apex Analytics and part-time resident of Snowmass
Village, will serve in an advisory role with particular focus on electric vehicle (EV)-related grid
forecast and associated impacts. Scott also founded and was President of the EV managed
charging startup, Rolling Energy Resources.
Matt Nelson, Principal and former Chair of the Massachusetts Public Utility Commission, will
serve as a subject matter expert to lead the review of relevant Colorado electric utility
landscape (wholesale market volatility task).
Cherlyn Seruto, Principal and Founder of Eco(Zpark Solutions LLC in Boulder, Colorado, will lead
Task 3, Innovative Incentives and Programs. EcoSpark is a certified woman -owned small
business with the City and County of Denver and brings over 15 years of experience in
electrification -focused market research and strategic planning. She led Evergy's 2020 Strategic
Electrification Plan and has a long history of collaborating with Apex, including market research
(interviews with trade allies, contractors, and builders) for Xcel Energy's Energy Non -Pipeline
Alternatives Project, reflecting long-standing and effective collaboration.
Thomas Wells, Principal and Founder of Dynamodal LLC in Fruita, Colorado, will lead Task 4,
modeling Future Grid Requirements. Thomas brings 20 years of experience with data
management, energy systems, and utility analytics. Previously, a field electrical engineer for BP
Alaska, Thomas became a utility consultant in 2014. He has worked on a wide range of projects
on both sides of the customer meter including grid modernization modeling, conservation
voltage reduction and volt-var optimization M&V, AMI disaggregation, heat pump performance
evaluation, and billing data analysis. He has experience with distribution system modeling using
ETAP. He holds a B.S. in Engineering Physics and an M.S. in Electrical Engineering from the
Colorado School of Mines.
Apex is located in Boulder, Colorado, with remote consultants nationwide, including in Aspen.
The Apex team has been offering electric utility consulting and advisory services since 2011
i
wth the goal of providing the highest quality planning, potential, market research and evaluation
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studies for energy efficiency (EE), electrification, transportation electrification, load
management, and market transformation programs. Apex is a small employee -owned firm with
15 consultants with backgrounds in economics, engineering and market research. We lead the
development of some of the largest portfolio planning efforts in the U.S. while also supporting
smaller Colorado municipal utilities and Wyoming communities, and we have helped utilities
understand the technical impacts and qualitative outcomes of pursuing EE and electrification
goals.
Apex is unique compared to other firms in that over half of our projects are working directly for
utilities in a staff extension/augmentation position. In this role, we assist with EE planning and
beneficial electrification strategy. We have unique access to the most recent policies, methods,
and findings throughout the United States —and more regionally applicable Colorado studies —
that we can utilize for this project. Our team is also unique in having launched an EV managed
charging startup, Rolling Energy Resources, which gave our team access to over 6,000 EVs to
analyze charging and driving behaviors and ultimately load profiles. Our team has leveraged this
EV data and conducted numerous evaluations and research studies for utilities and program
administrators regionally (Colorado) and nationally.
Partnering with Apex are Cherlyn Seruto, Principal and Founder of EcoSpark Solutions LLC (a
certified women -owned small business located in Denver, cseruto@eco-spark.com), and
Thomas Wells of Dynamodal (located in Fruita, 067thomas@dynamodal.com).
Together, the Apex team has conducted numerous electrification market potential studies; has
in-depth knowledge of heat pumps, EV adoption, and associated load impacts; brings directly
relevant experience in electrification barrier assessment and strategy development; and has a
local presence within and adjacent to Aspen territory. Below we provide several example
projects on which our team has recently worked that are relevant to this project.
A ID F
x Electrification Planning, Potential Analysis, and Transformer Loading Studies
Client: City of Fort Apex has supported Fort Collins Utilities as it designs and evolves
Collins, programs to support beneficial electrification, particularly
Longmont, and adoption of cold climate heat pumps to offset fossil fuel use for
PRPA heating. Research included online roundtable discussions with
ers: 200,000+ HVAC supply chain actors to understand their business
2021—Present considerations, motivations, and decision making around heat
s: Brian Tholl (FC), pump installations; customer surveys to assess awareness of
Ryan Gibson heat pumps and electrification benefits and attitudes around heat
(PRPA) pump technologies; development of a cost-effectiveness
cgov.com; framework to determine the jurisdiction -wide benefits and costs
@prpa.org of offering various electrification measures; and a short-, mid-, and
-4326 long-term forecast for electrification adoption across six adoption
cases (varying between business as usual, achievable and
technical potentials with varying constraints). Apex also analyzed
AMI data for all -electric and gas -heat household groups tied to
individual transformers to estimate electrification loading (by
summer and winter peak periods). Finally, for PRPA, Apex
forecasted the long-range impacts across six achievable and
@f
ustom
C
Timing:
Reference
BTholl
gibsonr
970-416
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technical potential scenarios to estimate the volume and electric
kWh and kW impacts of electrification.
Client: Colorado Springs Utilities
Customers: 250,000 +
Timing: 2022-2023
Reference: Samantha Bailey
samanthabailey@coloradosprings.gov
(719) 362-7360
Client: Xcel Colorado
Customers: 1.4 million
Timing: 2023-2025
Reference: Grace Jones
Grace.k.jones@xcelenergy.com
Phone number available upon
Apex staff members (as part of Rolling Energy Resources,
our sister company) led a study, with Drive Clean Colorado
and the City of Colorado Springs as partners, to examine
equitable EV adoption in the residential rental segment. The
study conducted a comprehensive research effort that
included analysis of EV adoption rates and driving patterns,
plus 50 interviews with multi -unit dwelling (MUD) property
managers to better understand the barriers to and interest
in installing EV charging stations. The project also
developed a user-friendly online dashboard (EV Digital
Equity Platform, or DEP), to serve as a planning tool for city
and regional planners throughout the U.S. who are looking
for ways to increase EV adoption in MUDs, particularly
through increasing access to EV charging stations for the
rental community.
Apex, under subcontract to PA Consulting,
conducted a potential
assessment of Et and electrification alternatives that could delay
or eliminate a need to upgrade pipeline infrastructure in Xcel
Energy's Mountain areas. We analyzed customer billing data in
that area and segmented loads by customer type. We conducted
surveys of residential and commercial customers to assess
request willingness to participate in programs with varying levels of
incentives. We interviewed builders and contractors to assess
their understanding and impression of electrification options in
mountain areasWe forecasted program participationestimated
. ,
grid impacts at the feeder level, and presented results to
stakeholders. The team supported Xcel in responding to discovery
questions from a variety of stakeholders as part of the
commission hearing process. Xcel was able to reach a settlement
agreement with the Sierra Club, the mountain communities of
Keystone and Breckenridge, SWEEP, and the Colorado Energy
Office, demonstrating the team's ability to propose broadly
supported electrification solutions for mountain communities. The
team provided expert witness testimony in the Public Utility
Commission case hearing.
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APEX
AIk\1 ALYTICS
' Approach to Project
The Apex team will leverage our prior beneficial electrification work in Fort Collins, Longmont,
Jackson Hole, and PRPA as well as our work for Colorado Energy Office, Xcel Energy, and
across the country' to help the Aspen Utilities gain perspective on the potential of advanced
electrification penetration on the community -wide electric grid. The use of existing data will help
provide a goldilocks level of research —a robust analysis resolution that also provides cost-
efficient research. Apex can also offer recommendations for supplemental research to increase
the precision and accuracy in the grid impact forecast should the City require it. Apex will
conduct a phased study, attempting to leverage existing City and other secondary data sources,
to estimate grid loading potential as demonstrated below in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Aspen Community Electrification Research Process
�n objectives
ranularity
•Conduct initial measure screen
•Propose assumptions
•Define scenarios
•Gas baseline
•Grid impacts
•Technical potential
•High/low/mid
forecast scenarios
• Easy to understand
high-level results
•Detailed backup for
interested parties
The team has previously assessed the residential and commercial building electrification
measures and their technical potential as part of our ongoing study for Fort Collins, Longmont,
and PRPA as well as Xcel Energy's Mountain system. This work covered both residential and
major commercial and industrial electrification measures. By focusing our analysis on
opportunities related to the highest impact technologies, we can create a more accurate
10n behalf of the Massachusetts Program Administrators, Justin Spencer and Scott Dimetrosky recently oversaw
the building beneficial electrification potential studies. Noah Lieb is working with ComEd to model electrification
scenarios as part of ComEd's 2022-2025 Energy Efficiency Plan. All team members are consistently monitoring
policies, programs, and trends around beneficial electrification across the country.
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forecast of future impacts in the short timeframe available, while avoiding spending too much
time or money on researching technologies that will have minor impacts.
The first task establishes the fundamental grounding data and contextual framework by first
creating a quantitative energy baseline for Aspen Utilities, which involves calculating top-level
annual energy usage and determining sector- and end -use -level peak day and peak hour
consumption using appropriate load shapes; this phase also estimates the baseline market
adoption levels of key electrification technologies (like heat pumps and EVs) for high -impact
fossil fuel end uses. The study then provides external context by reviewing the broader
Colorado electric utility landscape, analyzing how constraints in transmission access and
generation build -out (driven by factors such as the MEAN IRP and Colorado 2050 mandates)
will qualitatively impact Aspen Utilities' future costs. Finally, Apex will summarize alternative
electric utility rate structures currently used across Colorado and nationally, with all findings
compiled into a concise Interim Report that serves as the foundation for the remainder of the
project.
In the second part of the study, we will apply forecasted adoption rates and the associated
electric peak kW and annual kWh electric impacts of the beneficial electrification technologies
across several adoption scenarios. For this work, we will again leverage our study with Fort
Collins/Longmont and PRPA, which included customer -centric adoption curves. We will
supplement this with the existing data used for Aspen's greenhouse gas (GHG) dashboard
coupled with information from other literature research and knowledge from industry sources,
carefully selecting sources that we believe are applicable to Aspen or make adjustments to
apply the data to the Aspen territory. We will then work with Aspen to settle on the final
scenarios to be used for high, medium, and low adoption cases.
For the third task, our focus will be on identifying other successful Colorado -centric or
nationwide electrification efforts that have experienced strong adoption rates, while also
identifying weak program attempts that failed to increase interest and uptake in building and
transportation electrification.
The fourth task will use the baseline, business -as -usual model developed in Task One along
with the impact and adoption scenarios from Task Two to model future grid conditions. While
the accuracy of the model will be limited by available data, we will focus the model design to
best highlight the location of potential bottlenecks and inform actions necessary to alleviate
them.
Apex will compile a final report summarizing findings from all four tasks with findings tailored
to Aspen's needs and present the findings to staff.
rjct/Task Kickoff
Apex will launch the project with a kickoff meeting to align on objectives, review data sources,
and discuss project risks. During the kickoff, the Apex team will present a workplan and discuss
clarifications with the Aspen project team. In addition, we will step through our best
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APEX
understanding of data availability and make data requests and real-time revisions as necessary,
based on the City's feedback. The Apex team will work with the City to agree on an appropriate
level of granularity and boundary required for this project, which will provide valuable insights in
a cost-effective manner, based on data that is available. 2
Task 1: Understand Current Energy Usage and Usage Patterns
Due to the extensive and broad research scope contained within Task 1, the Apex team has
divided this research into five sub -tasks, each summarized below.
Task 1.1: Baseline summary of Annual Energy Use
The Apex Team will begin Task 1 by estimating atop -level baseline summary of Aspen's total
energy usage across building sectors and transportation segments. We anticipate that this work
will rely heavily on the data used to develop the most recent GHG emissions report and
dashboard.3 This shows total emissions based on consumption from each of residential and
commercial building electricity and natural gas consumption, as well as transportation
emissions. There is a slight mismatch between the area covered by the GHG emissions report
(full City of Aspen) and the area covered by this study (Aspen Utilities). As a result, the team will
scale the full city consumption data from the CURE report down to the electric utility footprint by
taking the ratio of residential and commercial electricity consumption for the utility to the
residential and commercial electricity consumption for the city. Apex will also compile other
publicly available data, including CoA utility, Pitkin county assessor (if available), and
ReStock/RECs. This will result in estimates of total annual electricity, natural gas, and
gasoline/diesel. After developing the total annual fossil fuel consumption estimates for the city
utility footprint, the team will disaggregate consumption into building and transportation end
uses as shown in the figure below, using ResStock and ComStock and transportation sector
composition information.
2 Aviation fuel makes up a significant portion of transport emissions, but being outside the City Utilities footprint we
recommend excluding this from this study. Though there is some limited use of propane, wood, and other fuel
sources in the City of Aspen, for the purposes of this study we believe the vast majority of impacts will result from
natural gas conversions and electric system upgrades, so we recommend also removing these from the study.
a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventor Report I Roaring Fork Valle, CO
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Residential Commercial
Buildings Buildings
Space Heating Space Heating
Water Heating Water Heating
Cooking Equipment
Cooking
•ther (snow melt,•
lawn/garden.)
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ANHLYTICS
dHbPUI Lation
•
Heavy Duty Vehicles
No '•.• Equipment and:
Vehicles
The result of this subtask will be an estimate of sector- and end -use -level annual consumption
of electricity and each fossil fuel within Aspen Utilities' footprint.
Task 1.2: Baseline Peak ®ay and Peak Hour Energy Use
For each energy end use, the team will then estimate peak day and peak hour consumption
using a load shape approach. For existing electricity usage, the Apex team will review the
assumptions used in the overcurrent study and discuss the relative merits of different peak
thresholds (e.g. 50-50, 1-year-in-10, 1-year-in-30, etc.) with Aspen before making a
recommendation about the design condition to be used and approach to estimate peak impact
using appropriate load shapes.
For the building sector fossil energy use, we recommend using the ratio of peak hour gas and
peak day gas impacts to annual energy consumption from the Xcel Mountain Energy NPA study
that we recently conducted, for the most appropriate area, likely the Vail Valley. For
transportation electrification gasoline and diesel usage, we recommend seasonal usage load
shapes that we have developed for other cold climates, showing higher usage during winter.
The agreed upon load shapes will then be multiplied by the annual energy consumption values
from Task 1.1 to estimate sector- and end -use -level peak hour and peak day consumption of
electricity and each fossil fuel within Aspen Utilities' footprint.
Task 1.3: Baseline Electrification Adoption
For all high -impact fossil fuel end uses (those making up at least 2°i° of peak hour or peak day
consumption in Task 1.2), the team will estimate baseline levels of adoption using secondary
research and expert judgment in consultation with Aspen. It is expected that the high -impact
fossil fuel end uses will include residential and commercial space heating (highest impact, likely
8M5%), transportation electrification (likely 515%), and residential and commercial water
heating (likely 1-2%). The outcome of this task will be an estimate of baseline heat pump, heat
pump water heater, and EV market adoption in Aspen.
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A 1' \1 /A LYT I C S
Task I A. Review oll Relevant Colorado Electric Utility Landscape
Managing volatility in wholesale energy costs while retiring fossil generation requires more than
load forecasts; it requires a framework that links local electrification with the broader
transmission and generation build -out (and retirement) now underway in the Mountain West.
We propose to outline a customer -centric approach that keeps affordability and reliability at the
center of decision -making, while recognizing that the transition must unfold within the
constraints of statewide resource planning and the Colorado 2050 goals. By focusing on a
framework rather than prescriptive answers, Aspen can identify the levers —transmission
access, diversified clean resources, and demand -side solutions —that best balance near -term
risks with long-term opportunity for customers and the community. Aspen is in a unique
situation as a far-flung member of the Municipal Energy Agency of Nebraska (MEAN). The latest
MEAN Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)4 identifies significant needs for increased generation to
meet growing demand in the western half of their footprint, which includes Aspen. In addition, it
identifies that it uses transmission capacity owned by Public Service of Colorado, Black Hills
Energy, Tristate, and others, including Holy Cross Energy, which is the portion of the
transmission system serving the Roaring Fork Valley. It's unclear at this time how generation
and transmission utilities will deal with Colorado Project 2050 mandates for decarbonized
electricity production, but it seems likely to include a large amount of renewables and batteries
covering 90% or more of electricity needs, with some kind of decarbonized seasonal storage or
fossil generation with carbon capture used to serve the last portion of the load.5 In the near
term, utility generation capacity on the Western Slope of Colorado is declining, with reduced
WAPA hydro output due to long term drought and planned retirement of Craig Coal Generating
Station, while distributed solar and storage grows. The Apex team will seek to disentangle the
future generation and transmission landscape impacts, including transmission immediately
upstream, long-distance transmission, regional and upstream generation opportunities that may
impact Aspen's decision -making.
The outcome of this subtask will be a qualitative assessment of transmission and generation
constraint impacts on Aspen Utilities' costs going forward.
Task 1.5: Review of Relevant Alternative Rate Structures
In a prior engagement for the Colorado Energy Office in 2024, Apex collected information on
electricity rate structures in Colorado, which showed a tremendous diversity of rates in use by
municipal and cooperative utilities across Colorado, including standard consumption rates,
seasonally variable rates, time -of -use (TOU) rates, declining block rates, inclining block rates,
and demand -based rates. The Apex team will update this review with new information and
combine it with information gleaned from evaluating innovative rate pilots across the country.
a Microsoft Word -MEAN 2022 Integrated Resource Plan
5 PRPA expects similar constraints on and challenges in their IRP: https://prpa.org/wp-
content/upIoacis/2023/04/2024-Integrated-Resource-PIan.pdf
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The product of this subtask will be a summary of alternative rate designs, their pros and cons
for Aspen, and their estimated impacts on winter peak.
Apex will summarize our findings across the five Task 1 subtasks in a concise report. This
report will include an executive summary, a description of our approach, and findings across
each of the five subtasks. We will use this interim report as the basis to build upon for the final
report across the remainder of Tasks 2-4.
For Task 2, Apex will build on the efforts completed in Task 1 to forecast the adoption of
electrification technologies in the Aspen Utilities service territory. This analysis will estimate
increases on Aspen's grid and inform if/when the peak electric load will surpass Holy Cross
Electric's capacity to deliver to Aspen.
As a general practice, our team models scenarios that could feasibly happen and we will
discuss the potential mechanisms that could lead to varying adoption levels. We will work with
Aspen to define the parameters that inform the three achievable potential scenarios and plan to
model impacts through 2050, Our team recommends the following potential scenarios as a
starting point, to be further refined in collaboration with Aspen:
Technical potential: The theoretical maximum electrification that could occur.
Low adoption: Business as usual traditional utility or other regional (CORE) incentives. This is
the baseline scenario.
Medium adoption: Higher levels of adoption based on higher customer uptake which could be a
result of lower prices for electrification technologies, higher utility rebates, more favorable rates
for customers electrifying their space heating, or increasing favorability of electrification
technologies from Aspen residents. The team could also vary the per measure impacts for
measures with a shiftable load.
High adoption: A high adoption scenario or "max achievable" scenario would explore the
impacts of significant policy intervention, such as code bans on installation of new fossil
equipment. Even in a "max achievable" scenario, we would expect many customers to adopt
dual fuel systems or fossil systems as allowable, but newly constructed facilities would be
assumed to install electrified technologies.
Our team will leverage and refine our previously developed database of residential and
commercial electrification measures which we have used for Xcel Energy, Fort Collins,
Longmont, and the Colorado Energy Office. Additionally, the team has recent prior experience
interviewing contractors and customers in Colorado's mountain regions about electrification,
which has helped us to understand the unique challenges and opportunities for electrification in
Colorado's cold climate (e.g., homes may not have adequate duct sizing or electric panel space
to accommodate full electrification. Many mountain homes use hydronic heating which is more
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difficult to electrify than forced air systems). Our in-depth knowledge of viable electrification
measures, specific experience in the Colorado mountains, and insights from our experience
starting an EV data collection startup ensure that our team will be able to ramp up quickly on
the adoption forecasting task.
We've broken our forecasting approach into four subtasks, shown below.
s
Starting with the baseline energy characterization and electric grid characterization completed
in Task 1, we will develop a list of measures that we will include in our forecast. As mentioned
above, we expect residential and commercial space heating, transportation electrification, and
residential and commercial water heating measures will have the highest impacts. Apex will
work with Aspen to settle on a list of electrification technologies that have the highest potential
impacts.
From each end use, we will identify key techonologies; different technologies within an end use
can have different peak load impacts (for example electrifying gas equipment with a ground
source heat pump will have a lower peak electric contribution when compared to an air source
heat pump since it operates at a higher efficiency during extreme cold temperatures). Apex will
also consider behavioral and code -based measures, including BPS, though we expect these
non -resource alternatives to be used in the forecast scenario analysis. We see significant
benefit in focusing the more in-depth analysis on the space heating measures, which are
expected to make up over 80% of total peak day and peak hour impacts. The team will apply
impacts and load shapes' by technology and household/business characteristic to estimate the
unitized impact of a given technology.
For each measure identified, the team will develop a list of measure -level impacts. These
impacts will include the impact on electric peak hour and peak day, annual electricity, and
annual gas. Each measure will have a measure unit that can be used to appropriately scale the
impact of the measure being adopted. For example, a unit could be a household, or it could be
square footage of conditioned space in a commercial building.
In collaboration with Aspen Utilities, we will determine the appropriate customer segmentation
and level of granularity for the forecast. We would recommend segmenting residential,
commercial, and transportation as well as technology replacement types including:
Retrofit of existing equi
Is Retrofit A retrofit case occurs when a customer upgrades
existing equipment before the end of its useful life, for example a customer may still
have a functional furnace, but they may choose to upgrade to a cold -climate heat pump
6 We have reliable residential and commercial building load shapes available from an ongoing NREL study in which
we participate.
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to add cooling in the summer and electrify their heating load. Shell measure upgrades
are also considered retrofits.
• Replace on failure of equipment: The time a customer is most likely to upgrade their
equipment is when their existing equipment has failed or is near the end of its useful life.
In this case, a customer must purchase something to replace their failed equipment, so
they are choosing between low-cost baseline equipment and a higher -cost efficient or
electric equipment. This provides a case where the incremental cost to the customer is
the difference between the two systems, rather than a full system cost.
• New construction:' Another case where a customer may be likely to purchase electric or
high -efficiency equipment is at the time of being built. Like in the replace -on -failure case,
there isn't an option to do nothing, and the incremental cost may be low enough for a
customer to choose an upgraded heating (or other) system..
Each of these segments and replacement types need to be tracked independently to correctly
account for the stocks and flows when estimating potential.
Retrofit of existing equipment is often the most difficult to forecast, since customers have the
option to do nothing. Typically, forecasters rely on historical participation data to inform future
adoption.
For the replace -on -failure case, the team would use existing saturations of equipment coupled
i
wth the expected lifetime to assess the total number of each measure that is expected to
turnover each year.
To estimate new construction activity, we will work with data provided by Aspen as well as use
public data sources to estimate the number of new facilities built in the city for each year of the
forecast. A simplified approach could use an estimate of census tract population forecasts
combined with an assumed demolition rate ) of buildings yielding new construction estimates
that come from the combination of new residents and replacement of old buildings.
Technical potential is an estimate of the impacts that occur if all included technologies were
instantly electrified. This represents the maximum impacts that could possibly occur. Technical
potential is not typically used to inform policy or decision making, since it represents an
impossible and instantaneous transformation of technologies; however, it is critical for
bounding further steps of the analysis.
Our team will conduct this analysis from abottom-up perspective, calibrated to the entire fossil
fuel consumption for each sector and end use, as estimated in Task 1.2. For the bottom -up
� While we typically include new construction in forecasting, our understanding is that there may be highly limited
new construction within the Aspen Utilities footprint, so this measure type may be removed in consultation with
Aspen.
$ We are aware that Aspen only allows for six demolition and rebuilds per year in the residential sector.
Docusign Envelope ID: 9CC3A546�6FDF-45B4-B351-F5993CE46777
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AI�\1ALYTICS
forecast we will combine our estimate of the saturation of technologies that can be electrified
and multiply that by the measure impacts (e.g., the technical potential of residential heat pumps
is the number of homes that could install a heat pump and don't currently have a heat pump
times the per -home impacts of a heat pump). In cases where there are competing measures
with an outsized impact, such as air source heat pump full electrification (15-20 kW/residence)
vs. ground source heat pump (4-6 kW/residence) vs. hybrid air source heat pump (0
kW/residence), we will show sensitivities on technical potential.
Task 2.4: Achievable Potential Estimation
Our team plans on forecasting the achievable potential of electrification separately for buildings
and vehicle electrification. For EV adoption, we anticipate using the Aspen EV masterplan in
combination with publicly available datasets, such as EValuateCO, to forecast EV adoption in
the City. We will combine the forecast of EV adoption along with per-EV peak grid impacts
(accessible from our partnership with Rolling Energy Resources EV managed charging analysis)
to estimate the impact on the grid. Some EV usage may be controlled through managed
charging to minimize peak electric impacts.
To estimate building electrification adoption, we plan on leveraging our existing stock turnover
model architecture for electrification adoption for Aspen customers. The stock turnover model
considers when equipment needs replacing at end of life then calculates market shares of
electrified equipment using customer adoption estimates. Our model uses an enhanced bass
diffusion approach to estimating customer adoption. This model estimates adoption of each
technology with a starting point of the current saturation of the technology and a long -run
market share that would be informed by our prior mountain electrification research. The bass
diffusion model connects the initial market saturation to the long run market share with an s-
shaped curve which is shaped by two key parameters: the coefficient of innovation and the
coefficient of imitation. The specific values of these coefficients as well as the long -run market
share are defined for each technology and for each scenario. Figure 2 shows an example of
forecasted total units in use for heat pumps and furnaces that the team developed for PRPA
(across the four -member communities). This scenario shows a ramping of heat pump
technologies and a decrease in the use of furnaces.
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Figure Z. Forecasted Low Scenario Residential Furnace/AC and Heat Pump Stock
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Using the
per -building measure orper-vehicle estimated impacts with the estimate of each technology's
annual adoption, the team will estimate the total achievable potential impacts in each year for
the overall service territory, which would also inform when the utility may exceed Holy Cross
Electric's capacity to deliver. These results can be further disaggregated to understand the
impacts on different nodes on the grid, depending on data availability. These impact estimates
form the basis for modeling future grid requirements in Task 4.
�si� 3: Innovative Incentives and Programs
This approach combines our team's direct program experience, a review of published studies,
and targeted industry outreach to ensure full coverage of best practices and emerging
innovations. We will focus on tailoring incentive and program recommendations to target
specific grid constraints unique to Aspen. The following three workstreams will culminate in
actionable recommendations for Aspen.
Task 3.1: Leverage Our Current Work and Benchmarks
The Apex team has worked with some of the largest —and smallest —program administrators
nationally to help design, administer, and evaluate beneficial electrification strategies. This
gives our team direct insight into comparative approaches from the outset, since many of the
utilities and programs we will benchmark are also our clients. For example, we have worked
with Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado and are keenly aware of the
electric heat rate design, significant rebates, and other support offered for transportation and
building electrification.
We will supplement our direct experience with existing benchmarking efforts already compiled
(e.g., ACEEE, Western Resource Advocates, the State of Massachusetts), along with our own
prior research.
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Should any gaps remain after leveraging our experience and published studies, we will consult
our extensive professional network of utility staff, program implementers, and industry experts.
This outreach will target innovative programs or technologies not yet well documented (such as
new electrification codes, dynamic rates beyond TOU, or emerging load -management solutions)
and assess their potential applicability for Aspen Utilities.
The benchmarking research will focus on identifying program design attributes that drive
greater success with higher adoption rates relative to programmatic "laggards". Metrics may
include incentive structure, rate design, contractor network development, infrastructure
investment (i.e., EVSE) and integration with building code or equipment requirements. To
compare incentives, we'll have to set up the comparative dataset to ensure normative
comparisons of the metrics, which can be tricky. Some programs offer incentives on an
efficiency -tier and capacity/tonnage basis, while other programs focus purely on efficiency
tiers. Our team has successfully conducted similar benchmarking efforts where we
standardized incentives to a "per -unit" basis and included the nuances in the resulting tables.
Other incentive dynamics include availability of state and federal funding, which at this time are
highly uncertain; we recommend excluding these options from the analysis.
Benchmarking will include amatrix/table summary of each program, the utility type (IOU vs
municipal utility) the participation and system requirements, the targeted populations, the
incentives, and whether the utility offers TOU or other rate types. Benchmarking will also include
a discussion of the differences between the programs and what might make a particular
program superior versus those that may pose challenges, and will craft the analysis with COA
as the key reference point (so other programs as they may relate or be implemented by the
COA).
The deliverable will summarize utility and/or community approaches to beneficial
electrification, identifying both best practices and pitfalls, and producing a set of
recommendations for program design features best suited for smoothing building peaks in
Aspen, informed by comparative benchmarking, published evidence, and targeted expert
insights.
The final task will help the City of Aspen understand the ultimate impact of varying
electrification scenarios on the grid overall and by component. Quantifying the impacts of the
forecasted scenarios from Task 2 on individual grid components will help Aspen understand
potential grid impacts and could inform policy positions.
•• .•- 1• i -•lacemenT suneulles• • torecast
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impacts will be estimated by extrapolating increases by sector to individual grid equipment
based on the existing loading customer split for each piece of equipment, as available. The
budget assumes that customer data by node will not be available and instead, load increases
i
wll be assigned proportional to fraction of whole utility load represented by load on each piece
of equipment.' The forecasted increases will be added to the existing loading coming from the
separate study of Aspen's circuit and transformer loading and limits to derive an estimate of
when equipment will have its capacity exceeded. In addition, this analysis will include an
assumption about the uneven distribution of electrification adoption at the transformer level,
similar to what we used for Fort Collins and Longmont in a prior study. The result will be a
calculation of the fraction of transformers that would require upgrading due to their capacity
being exceeded at each of a series of points in time (e.g., 2030, 2035) 2040, 2045, 2050),
holding all other loads constant, for each scenario. As an example of the electrification
transformer loading study conducted for Fort Collins, Apex analyzed AMI data from matched
transformer neighborhoods based on electric heat versus non -electric heat homes connected to
each transformer. Figure 3 below shows the results of the transformer loading where winter
peak for electric home transformers is between 3-4 times that of the non -electric group.
Figure 3. Seasonal Transformer Loading between Electric and Non -Electric Homes
Summer Max Load Per Premise
4.00
2.00
0.00 >saa cx an aaa.. aes ca>A aaw..�w rsu e�n,�m eza wo .au axsa saa
®Summer 16 min max`Ioad per premise (kW)
a Summer;60 mint max load per premise (kM
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Winter Max Load Per Premise
®Winter 15 m(n maz load per premise (kW)
n Winter 60 min max load per premise (kW)
o Winter 120 min max load per premise (kW) 7
■Winter 6 hour max load per premise (kW)
Task nalyze Potential Demand Impact of Distributed Energy Resources
The Apex team will work with Aspen Utilities to decide on which distributed energy resource
technologies should be included in an analysis of demand reduction opportunities. The analysis
9 In the event that Aspen Utilities would like us to conduct additional analysis using node -specific customer data,
we have included an optional task in the budget to complete this analysis.
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will (DER) compare the amount of demand reduction necessary to the amount of demand
reduction that could realized through the additional DERs. Similar to the benchmarking analysis,
Apex will summarize DER options in a table/matrix along with typical costs, advantages and
concerns for each DER type, and include a discussion around which options should be more
appealing to CoA (to incentivize) and those to consider keeping as "monitor" only for later
reevaluation. DERs explored would include (but are not limited to) generation (solar,
geothermal), storage (battery, EV, water heaters), and DSM resources (thermostats, DR / VPP).
The Apex team will provide pros and cons and feasibility of achieving large impacts for each of
the DERs under consideration.
Apex will draft an initial interim report to summarize our Task 1 findings after the development
of the baseline community wide energy use. Our team will then prepare a concise final report
which will include results of Tasks 1-4 . The report will consist of:
executive summary focusing on the high-level results, suitable for sharing with non-
technical audiences, including relevant governmental, commercial, and non-profit
organizations, including city, county, state governments, local sustainability groups, and
key business members.
2. The report body will contain all the results of all work in all tasks, suitable for use
internally at Aspen, including detailed recommendations for rate design, incentive
design, and other program strategies that Aspen should consider taking to increase
adoption of beneficial electrification technologies and opportunities to offset these
increases by offering both demand and supply side resources.
3. A data spreadsheet and accompanying documentation appendix to the final report
intended to be used internally by Aspen staff. This will go into much more detail, with all
the detailed quantitative results for each scenario. This reference document can be used
by Aspen to conduct future derivative analyses.
In addition to the draft report, the team plans to present results in two different settings:
• Presentation of final results to project team.
• Presentation of final results to Aspen senior management team or other stakeholders
and City staff.
eauest for Information
elow, Apex provides an example data request for information that supports projects like this
s part of our proposal. We can work with Aspen to refine this list of data needs during the
•meeting:
Number of customers by rate class
Customer and/or demand growth projections
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} Rate structures for each rate class (available here:
https://Ilbrary.municode.com/co/aspen/codes/municipal_code?nodeld=TIT25UT)
Discount rate assumptions
Generation carbon intensity (current and projected, mostly available through
https://aspen.gov/DocumentCenter/View/l 4917/2023-Aspen-Community-Wide-
Greenhouse-Gas-Inventory-Summary-PDF)
} Customer/equipment stock data if available
Feeder and transformer loading data, and overcurrent study results, if and when
available
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4, References
Project Name Years Contact Name Phone
ML
Ft Collins 2016-
Electrification current Brian Tholl 970-416-4326
Longmont 2020- Susan Bartlett 303-774-4767
Electrification current
i
PRPA Electrification 2018- Ryan Gibson Ryan 970-229-
Potential 2024 4877
PRPA Electrification 2018- Masood Masood 970-
IQ Rate Impacts 2024 Ahmad 229-4836 Available
Xcel Non -Pipe 12023- Grace Jones
Alternatives 2025 upon request
Colorado Energy 2023- ;Loren Ahonen 720-665-1734
Office 2025
5. Fee Proposal and Schedule
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bthollna
fcaov.com
susan.bartlettna
longmontcolorado.gov
gibsonr�prpa.org
ahmadm(c�prpa.org
Grace.k.jones xcelenergy.com
loren.ahonen(a�state.co.us
The Apex team built abottom-up budget to reflect answering a
ll the City's research objectives
with the understanding of data limitations and availability (according to the responses to the
submitted Q&A). We attempted to right -size the budget to meet the core needs of this RFP. We
also recognize that there might be a more "bare -bones" approach that would still provide
valuable insights into Aspen's grid component loading that would meet 80% of the project
needs; conversely, our team can also imagine a more comprehensive study that costs five times
our proposed budget that would include detailed AMI analysis, AMI load profiling, specific
transformer, and feeder loading analysis leveraging detailed Pitkin County assessor data for
every premise within Aspen's grid (deeper analysis as our team previously conducted for Fort
Collins and Longmont). We welcome further discussion with Aspen to align our budget with
Aspen's desired scope if there are any elements of our proposal that have underestimated or
overestimated the needs of this study.
The Apex team proposes a total not -to -exceed budget of $132,175 (details provided in Table 1),
to be invoiced monthly on a time and materials basis and paid net 30 days. If desired, Apex can
provide additional support after delivery of the report on a time -and -materials basis.
APEX ANALYTICS page I �
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AkfiAPEX
\NALYTICS
cable 1. Project Fee Proposal
ItIptionai
EFask
2 lITask
3
Task ,
Report
Nodal
Firm
St aaff
Noah Lieb
Rate
$275
Hours
32
Hours
24
Hours
6
Hours
8
Hours
6
Cost
$20,900
Task
12
Justin Spencer
$250
54
22
6
4
10
$24,000
4
Apex
Jordan Mann
$250
54
22
6
8
10
$25,000
4
Analytics
Matt Nelson
$300
11
0
0
0
0
$3,300
0
Scott Dimestrosky
$300
1
8
0
0
0
$26?700
0
Duncan Ward
$175
89
66
0
24
10
$33,075
40
Dynamodal
Thomas Wells
$200
10
14
0
28
8
$12,000
24
EcoSpark
Cherlyn Seruto
$200
2
0
48
0
6
$11,200
0
Total
$57,375
$34,350
$14,250
$15,000
$11,200
$132,175
$17,100
The project timeline and scope assume that the project will kick off towards the end of January
(see Figure 4). With this starting point in mind, we expect the full project to take approximately
six months (excluding holiday periods), with completion by September 2026. Deadlines will be
adjusted if the kickoff and start date slides. The team anticipates using aregular bi-weekly
meeting slot to ensure there is time to discuss each task, interview Aspen staff, and incorporate
Aspen priorities and context into the work.
Figure 4. Project Schedule (revised)
Task 0 Kickoff
Task 1 Energy Usage Patterns
Task 2 Forecast EEE Adoption
Task 3 Benchmarking
Task 41Future Grid Modeling
Reporting and Presentations
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